by Anil Netto

The Barisan Alternatif’s upset win at the bitterly fought Lunas by-election in Kedah, the home-state of Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, has galvanized the reformasi movement and sparked renewed discussion about the premier’s political future.

Unlike other by-elections, the by-election in the forgotten sleepy hamlet of Lunas, held after the incumbent was murdered some three weeks earlier, was crucial for the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition.

The victory of the BA candidate is to be welcomed not so much because it was an opposition victory. It robbed the BN of its powerful two-thirds majority in the Kedah state assembly. The BA victory is another step towards the goal of achieving a viable and vigorous parliamentary democracy where two multiethnic coalitions have equal chances of victory. This will ensure greater checks and balances on the executive branch of the government.

A the same time, many analysts are already predicting that Kedah could be the third state to fall into opposition hands after the east coast states of Kelantan and Terengganu come the next general election due in 2004.

Almost immediately, UMNO Supreme Council member Shahrir Samad of Johor pinned the blame for the BN defeat squarely on Mahathir. He was reported as saying that the BN lost the seat because of “the character of our leader, Dr Mahathir”. Watch out for more rumblings of discontent from within UMNO – especially Johor UMNO - over Mahathir’s leadership of the party. Indeed, the Lunas verdict may have signalled that the endgame for Mahathir and UMNO has begun.

The by-election saw the opposition, represented by a candidate from keADILan (the National Justice Party), over-turning a 4,700-vote deficit at last November’s general election to win by a slim 530-vote majority out of more than 20,000 votes cast.

It was the first time that the revised electoral rolls were used with a chunk of new voters exercising their democratic right for the first time.

More than 600,000 voters were disenfranchised in the November 1999 general election simply because the Election Commission could not or would not process new voters in time for those polls. Many of these younger Malaysians are likely to have voted for the opposition.

A Rumbling of Discontent Nationwide

What spelt disaster for the BN in Lunas was the decisive swing among the ethnic Chinese towards the opposition, marking a radical departure from the way they voted in November 1999.

Mahathir peeved many Chinese Malaysians especially when he likened the demands of a grouping of Chinese associations movement’s action to those of communists in an Independence Day speech in August. UMNO Youth members later demonstrated in front of the Chinese associations’ office.

The premier again irked the ethnic Chinese when he labelled those who rejected the government’s Vision schools concept as extremists. Under the scheme, the government aims to house schools using different mediums of instruction in the same premises to promote integration among the various ethnic communities.

But many Chinese Malaysians, including Chinese educationists, worry that this will undermine the character and identity of the Chinese schools – simple things like whether non-halal food could continue to be sold in Vision school canteens. All the assurances from the BN apparently counted for little as voters refused to believe them, perhaps because of broken promises in the past.

To be sure, the best way to promote national unity is to promote ethnic integration in schools. But to convince Chinese and Tamil educationists about the importance of integration, there has to be a huge element of trust and prior consultation to dispel fears of cultural assimilation. This element was missing in the Vision schools proposal and proved to be the BN’s downfall in Lunas with the Chinese educationists expressing strong reservations over the concept.

In the end, the Suqiu controversy and the Vision schools proposal played a key role in swaying ethnic Chinese votes Vision schools towards the opposition. In the last general election, held exactly a year before the Lunas by-election, the support from the Chinese had helped the ruling coalition overcome a deep split in UMNO following the controversial sacking and jailing of former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim.

If the shift in the Chinese votes back to the opposition as seen in Lunas reflects a nationwide trend, then the BN could be in big trouble come the next general election.

But Mahathir and the Barisan should not blame the Chinese alone for their defeat. The whole nation has been seized by rumblings of discontent from all ethnic groups. Near Taiping, observers were surprised when some 2,000 Malaysians protested against the Internal Security Act outside the Kamunting Detention Camp, where detainees under the draconian Internal Security Act are held on the 13th anniversary of Operation Lalang at the end of October (see page 22).

Then, on Nov 5, tens of thousands of Malaysians converged near Shah Alam, the capital of central Selangor state, calling for Mahathir’s resignation (see back page). In the plantations, workers have protested about the lack of progress in trying to secure a fixed monthly wage. Across the South China Sea, in Sarawak, indigenous communities are protesting against the loss of their Native Customary Land.

Indeed, Lunas was one of the rare occasions where thousands of Malays and Chinese flocked in fairly equal numbers to the same opposition ceramahs. Lunas has given the reformasi movement a somewhat more multiethnic face that should augur well for the future though much work needs to be done to convince others. Whether the Chinese will now play a more active role in the movement remains to be seen but certainly their displeasure against the status quo has been loudly expressed.

Apart from the issues involved, the by-election was also widely seen as a proxy battle between Mahathir and Anwar, whose wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail heads keADILan.

In the event, the results indicated that the ethnic Malays, who make up some 43 per cent of voters in the constituency, remain deeply divided, while the ethnic Chinese, making up about a third, swung to the opposition. The ethnic Indians, however, remained fairly solidly behind the ruling coalition though even among them there appeared to be a smaller swing to the opposition.

Early Setback

The opposition suffered an early setback after wrangling about which party should represent the front in the by-election. The dispute threatened to break up the coalition. In last November’s general election, an ethnic Indian candidate from the Democratic Action Party represented the BA but this time the seat was given to a Malay from keADILan.

It was widely perceived as a slight to the Indian Malaysian community and fuelled discord among BA partners and within the DAP, which felt that it had been short-changed. Not surprisingly, the mainstream gleefully latched on this issue for the duration of the campaign to portray the opposition pact as disintegrating.

But the DAP, which had stayed away during the early part of the campaign, returned a couple of days before polling day in a dramatic about-turn, which proved to be a turning point. Its decision to campaign on behalf of the BA candidate appears to have been made in the larger interest of ensuring a victory for the BA and thus denying the two-thirds majority that the BN had in the Kedah state assembly.

This was a very mature decision made by the DAP leadership in contrast to some of the earlier childish antics from some members of both the KeADILan and the DAP. There can be little doubt that the DAP’s campaign efforts played a significant role in providing the extra boost that enabled the BA candidate to pip the BN to victory. The cooperation shown by the four parties during the campaign augurs well for the future of the BA coalition.

Now that the dust has settled, the BA will have to seriously discuss the criteria for the selection of its candidates if it wants to avoid similar bitter disputes over the choice of candidates in future polls.

The fiasco over the choice of candidate is the sort of thing the BA cannot afford. It alarmed reformasi supporters of all political affiliations not just those from the DAP and keADILan. In the end, it appeared that disquiet on the ground from those who wanted to see a united opposition forced the leaders to patch up.

One would have thought that compromise and sacrifice would be the watchwords of the BA in the larger cause of seeking justice for all Malaysians. For most BA supporters, the choice of candidates matters little with one proviso – many want the BA to evolve into a truly multiethnic and multireligious grouping that can represent the best interests of all Malaysians. It is up to the BA leaders to make this work and not undo the struggle of the last two years for selfish partisan interests.

The BA will have to debunk the notion that only a Malay can best represent a Malay-majority constituency, a Chinese in a Chinese-majority area, and an Indian in an area where there is a higher percentage of Indians. The BA appears also caught up in the whole post-NEP baggage of quotas and ethnic representation.

Malaysians are now looking for something different. They appear to be ready to elect candidates, based on their credibility, integrity and character, who can best represent all communities irrespective of ethnic origin. It is time for new strategies and ideas such as keADILan fielding more Chinese and Indian candidates in more areas and the DAP trying to field more Malay candidates. Ultimately what is important is for the victors to show that they can represent everyone irrespective of ethnic origin. That is why it is so important now for Saifuddin to show that he can represent all communities fairly in the pursuit of justice.

The BA coalition also needs to address the perceived slight to the Indian community. While it is not necessarily true that only Indian Malaysian elected representatives can look after the interests of the Indian community, it is symbolically important to have multi-ethnic representation in state assemblies and Partliament. This is to ensure that no minority group feels marginalised in the decision-making process.

Lunas will also be remembered for a bizarre incident: the interception of more than a dozen buses on polling day ferrying what the opposition called “phantom voters” from outside the constituency. The BN, on the other hand, countered that the passengers were ruling coalition supporters. Amidst tense scenes, the police finally escorted the buses out of the constituency after both sides had lodged police reports. The opposition has frequently complained of phantom voters being used to inflate votes for the ruling coalition, but this was probably the first time that alert supporters had intercepted suspicious buses coming into a by-election area.

In the absence of official election observers, the people took the initiative to observe and organise for themselves. This may be seen as the stirrings of a people-powered civil society. Indeed, the whole Lunas campaign was largely an effort by ordinary people and volunteers who have been deeply disturbed by recent trends in the country.

Victory was especially crucial for keADILan, seeking to step out of the shadow of the country’s largest opposition party, PAS (the Islamic Party). KeADILan’s win will also strengthen the multi-ethnic face of the opposition front, until now seen in some circles as dominated by PAS with its Islamic agenda. Very likely, it will make more ethnic Chinese less hesitant about voting for the opposition.

The Battles Ahead

The next battle after Lunas will be the Sarawak state election, which is expected to be held within the next six months, a perhaps a couple of other by-elections. In Sarawak, the opposition faces an uphill task against the well-oiled ruling coalition machinery. But the win at Lunas has boosted the opposition’s hopes of putting up a stronger showing.

It is likely that the BA will have to contend with the same brand of “politics of development” that was displayed in Lunas, where some 30 million ringgit was pumped for infrastructure projects in a frenzied last-minute attempt by the ruling coalition to win votes. Never has there been so many roads resurfaced in so short a time in a single Malaysian town - surely another entry to the Malaysia Book of Records.

But what is amazing is that the Lunas residents did not buy the attempts to win their favour with unprecedented material development in the town. They retained their dignity and their pride and basically told the BN that principles, justice, human rights and conscience matter more than money and material development. On this basis alone, the Lunas verdict will go down in history as a turning point in the struggle for more principled politics.

The roads may now be smoother in Lunas, but the ride ahead for Mahathir looks decidedly bumpy and questions are already being raised about how long he can survive after Lunas. The Lunas defeat comes soon after a proposal by the UMNO leadership to extend the tenure of office-bearers to five years was rejected by the party. To be sure, Mahathir’s stature has taken a battering with the by-election defeat and it remains to be seen how much of a liability UMNO will now consider him to be.

Anwar, recently hospitalized with a slipped disc, continues to loom large over the political landscape while reformasi just refuses to fade away.

Suddenly, the stakes have edged up a couple of notches and the battle-lines for the endgame have been drawn once again.