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The 2004 BN victory
By fair means or foul? Unexplained increases in total voters in key “front-line” states
by Jeyakumar Devaraj
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For the independent-minded Malaysian who would like to know what really took place, the data presented here would be useful. Discrepancies in the registration of new voters The number of voters in any State in Malaysia would tend to slowly increase over time in parallel with the population growth of the State. However we would expect that the rate of increase in voters would be about the same in all States - the exception being States with rapid economic development which might show a higher rate of increase due to the influx of workers into that State. The figures in Table 1 were derived from releases by SPR. As is quite evident, the quantum of increase in registered voters is not uniform, with Selangor and the “front-line States of Trengganu, Kedah and Pahang having 2-digit increments in total voters registered, while other States had much lower increases in the number of voters registered. This table does provide strong circumstantial evidence for the BA’s allegations of electoral fraud in certain States.
It would be in the enlightened interest of the BN to refrain from pressuring the Judiciary into employing technicalities to disallow the various Election Petitions alleging electoral fraud, for the very credibility of the electoral process is at stake and this is far more important than the loss of a few BN seats. The legitimacy of the ruling party would be seriously undermined by any attempts to cover up any perceived fraud. Erosion in Malay support for opposition parties
Kelantan has 14 parliamentary constituencies 5 had Malay majorities of less than 95%, while 2 others were contested by KeAdilan. The results for the remaining 7 are tabulated in Table 2. In all seven there were straight fights between UMNO and PAS in 1999 and in 2004.
It is clear that support for PAS among Kelantanese voters has eroded by around 20% between 1999 and 2004. This should not be whitewashed with the excuse of electoral fraud because there wasn’t the massive influx of new voters into Kelantan as there was in Trengganu , Kedah and Pahang.
The factors that caused this significant swing of Malay votes away from the BA parties cannot be gleaned from these statistics themselves. But these figures do suggest that UMNO would have improved its performance in Kedah, Trengganu and in Pahang even if there had not been any electoral fraud. (This is not to downplay attempts to expose and combat electoral fraud!) Non-Malay hesitation in supporting Keadilan and PAS The DAP appears to have received 60 66% of the non-Malay vote in certain urban constituencies. This is documented in Table 4.
None of the KeAdilan candidates contested in such large Chinese majority constituencies. However analysis of polling stations with high Chinese representation in the mixed constituencies contested by KeAdilan candidates indicates that there was significant hesitation among the non-Malay voters and KeAdilan candidates only received around 35 per cent of the non-Malay votes just slightly over half of what DAP received! See Table 5.
From the statistics above it is clear that there was swing of sentiment in favour of the BN both for Malay as well as for non-Malay voters, both in the West coast as well as the East Coast. The BN would have definitely done better than in 1999. The BA parties have to face the fact that they have not impressed the people too much these past five years, and should seriously review weaknesses in their approach and modus operandi, instead of ascribing it all to dirty tricks by the BN. However the figures in Table 1 do give cause for concern something sinister appears to have happened. If there was indeed electoral fraud if the disproportionate increase of voters in the front-line States was due to fraud then it couldn’t have occurred without complicity on the part of the SPR. If so, it represents a serious deterioration in the impartiality and professionalism of the SPR itself, and is a significant departure from previous forms of electoral fraud which were sponsored by individual politicians, with the SPR just turning a blind eye. The 2004 results have raised the suspicion that the SPR or a well connected faction within it has taken center stage in organizing electoral fraud! It is crucially important for the SPR and the BN to demonstrate to the Malaysian public that there was no fraud by allowing a fair and impartial review of the various irregularities that took place in the 2004 elections. And if there were indeed some attempts at fraud the perpetrators must be apprehended and charged. Anything less would be unlikely to stem the growing disillusionment with the process of parliamentary democracy in Malaysia. Now e-mail us and tell us what you think. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
If there was indeed electoral fraud if the disproportionate increase of voters in the front-line States was due to fraud then it couldn’t have occurred without complicity on the part of the SPR.
